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Record optimized pilot performance and explicit remaining data-residency gate
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‎README.md‎

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@@ -9,9 +9,11 @@ Mamba2–Transformer. NWM is an external comparator. Research skill results are
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not yet available; synthetic model checks and a development data smoke test
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do not establish forecast performance.
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The separate H4 pilot components are now [implemented and synthetically qualified](docs/pilot-implementation-qualification.md): exact 16-update restart and best-state inference checks passed. Study-data fits remain held. A zero-update profile identifies repeated provenance processing as the main current overhead; the revised six-fit proxy is 4.22/8.64 hours at 20/50 epochs, with further unmeasured work.
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The [resident execution recovery](docs/resident-execution.md) now keeps active code and a fully isolated pinned runtime outside cloud storage. [Optimized provenance processing](docs/pilot-provenance-performance-v2.md) passed exact v1 numerical equivalence and a new bounded restart/inference qualification. The six-fit cold-default proxy is now **2.03/4.06 hours at 20/50 epochs**, plus stated unmeasured work. Scientific fits and paid cloud jobs remain held. The resident data copy is **1,430/1,432 files** pending two owned cloud-file downloads and its final integrity pass.
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The requested missingness sensitivity now has a [development coverage census](docs/coverage-sensitivity-census.md), [paired experimental proposal](docs/coverage-sensitivity-design.md), and measured-rate cost scenarios. Short Q gaps alone leave substantial Sugar Grove high-flow exclusions; a separate short-gap/L24 route has broader structural support. No numerical imputation or sensitivity training has run, and the strict 180-fit primary remains unchanged.
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The [v1 implementation and qualification](docs/pilot-implementation-qualification.md), including its earlier 4.22/8.64-hour six-fit estimate, is preserved as historical evidence. Use the v2 performance summary above for current planning.
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The requested missingness sensitivity now has a [development coverage census](docs/coverage-sensitivity-census.md), [paired experimental proposal](docs/coverage-sensitivity-design.md), and measured-rate cost scenarios. Short Q gaps alone leave substantial Sugar Grove high-flow exclusions; a separate short-gap/L24 route has broader structural support. No study-data gap filling or scientific sensitivity training has run, and the strict 180-fit primary remains unchanged.
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## Current work packages
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fresh-process recovery and a 20-case synthetic local throughput benchmark.
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Discharge-only ablation and source-aware NWM evaluation helpers are implemented.
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The [multi-cycle reader](docs/multicycle.md)now processes five authenticated
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The initial [multi-cycle reader qualification](docs/multicycle.md)processed five authenticated
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development cycles across 2021–2024, preserving missing history masks. All four
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models passed bounded CPU/MPS end-to-end timing and checkpoint replay. See the
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[runtime and budget inputs](docs/runtime-and-budget.md) for measured stage costs,

‎configs/scientific-decisions.json‎

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{
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"schema": "hydra-scientific-decisions/v1",
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"status": "PILOT_COMPONENTS_SYNTHETICALLY_QUALIFIED_SCIENTIFIC_FITS_HELD",
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"status": "RESIDENT_RUNTIME_AND_OPTIMIZED_PILOT_REQUALIFIED_SCIENTIFIC_FITS_HELD",
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"primary_usgs_quality": {
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"status": "USER_CONFIRMED",
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"decision_date_local": "2026-11-02",
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"coverage": "COMPLETE_PER_LEAD_INPUT_TARGET_HIGH_FLOW_UNIQUE_HOUR_EVENT_GAP_POLICY_CENSUS",
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"uncertainty": "DEPENDENCE_AWARE_PROPOSAL_AND_UTILITIES_TESTED_NO_STUDY_INTERVALS",
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"holds": [
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"Review pilot-specific protocol, clean-input degradation/failure tolerances and measured preparation overhead before any scientific fit expansion",
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"Complete resident development snapshot, authenticate real per-slot provenance, and agree pilot protocol/tolerances before scientific fits",
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"Review conditional within-year uncertainty interpretation and any confirmatory multiplicity/practical-effect claim before freeze",
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"Confirm approximate independent basin footprints and non-nesting interpretation; no exact-outlet or nested-conservation claim"
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],
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"source_geometry_changed": false,
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"original_weight_hold_flags_changed": false,
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"pilot_missingness": "IMPLEMENTED_SYNTHETIC_QUALIFICATION_PASSED_REAL_FITS_HELD"
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"pilot_missingness": "OPTIMIZED_V2_EXACT_SYNTHETIC_REQUALIFICATION_AND_FULL_FIT_INNER_CONSTRUCTOR_PASSED"
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},
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"coverage_sensitivity_request": {
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"source": "DIRECT_USER_REPLY",
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"protected_assessment_authorized": false,
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"paid_cloud_execution_authorized_by_this_reply": false,
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"scientific_fit_release_conditions": [
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"Pilot protocol reviewed and frozen",
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"Clean-input degradation and failure tolerances agreed",
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"Concrete real-data fit allowance released after qualification",
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"Updated preparation runtime reviewed for schedule and budget; any optimization requalified",
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"Bounded full-cohort construction memory/time checked"
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"Pilot-specific protocol and clean-degradation/failure tolerances agreed",
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"Actual data/provenance bundle authenticated and complete resident snapshot verified",
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"Pilot assembler keeps qualified fit-plus-inner extent; outer data loaded separately",
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"Updated cold-default runtime and resource allowance reviewed",
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"Separate scientific execution release; protected assessment remains independently gated"
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],
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"implementation_status": "SEPARATE_H4_INPUT_FILLER_TRAINING_AND_BEST_INFERENCE_IMPLEMENTED",
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"qualification_report": "reports/gap-pilot-qualification-v1.json",
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"qualification_optimizer_updates": 16,
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"qualification_status": "PASSED_SYNTHETIC_FRESH_PROCESS_RESTART_AND_INFERENCE",
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"runtime_reassessment": "reports/gap-pilot-runtime-reassessment.json",
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"profile_optimizer_updates": 0
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"runtime_reassessment": "reports/gap-pilot-runtime-reassessment-v2.json",
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"profile_optimizer_updates": 0,
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"qualification_v2_status": "PASSED_EXACT_V1_AND_FRESH_RESTART_BEST_INFERENCE"
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},
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"execution_recovery_and_optimization": {
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"source": "DIRECT_USER_REQUEST",
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"recorded_at_utc": "2026-11-03T07:14:51.438493+00:00",
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"scope": "LOCAL_GIT_RESIDENCY_PROVENANCE_OPTIMIZATION_SYNTHETIC_REQUALIFICATION_ONLY",
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"active_code_and_runtime_outside_cloud": true,
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"isolated_locked_dependencies": 29,
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"qualified_source_rows_fit_plus_inner": 17869,
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"qualified_outer_rows": 0,
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"qualification_v2_report": "reports/gap-pilot-qualification-v2.json",
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"qualification_v2_optimizer_updates": 16,
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"exact_v1_numerical_equivalence": true,
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"new_ridge_fits": 0,
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"profile_v2_report": "reports/gap-pilot-preparation-profile-v2.json",
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"profile_timed_calls": 120,
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"profile_optimizer_updates": 0,
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"constructor_v2_report": "reports/gap-pilot-constructor-qualification-v2.json",
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"constructor_synthetic_scaler_fits": 1,
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"runtime_reassessment": "reports/gap-pilot-runtime-reassessment-v2.json",
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"development_residency": {
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"verified_files": 1430,
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"required_files": 1432,
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"remaining_cloud_only_files": 2,
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"remaining_bytes": 206468,
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"status": "AWAITING_SOURCE_RESIDENCY_FINALIZATION",
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"integrity_passes_started": 0
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},
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"scientific_fits_authorized": false,
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"paid_cloud_jobs_authorized": false,
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"protected_assessment_authorized": false
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}
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}
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# Provenance optimization: v2 qualification and performance
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The optimized H4 implementation passed a separate, bounded synthetic
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requalification. It preserves the v1 numerical results while reducing repeated
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metadata work. **The six neural pilot fits and three ancillary ridge fits remain
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held.** The primary 180-fit scope and $150 combined ceiling are unchanged; these
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receipts do not authorize scientific fits or paid cloud jobs.
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## What was verified
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The [v2 qualification](../reports/gap-pilot-qualification-v2.json) used exactly
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16 new synthetic optimizer updates: clean and augmented arms each ran a
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four-update baseline, a two-update prefix, and a two-update fresh-process
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continuation. It finished in 21.84 seconds. The consumed v1 allowance and all v1
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artifacts were preserved. The previously qualified ridge artifact was reused,
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with zero new ridge fits.
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Both arms matched v1 exactly on update traces, masks, losses, model and optimizer
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state, sampler order, saved H2 transforms, CPU RNG, selected best state and
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physical predictions. Fresh-process restart and label-free best inference also
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passed. The new checkpoints have different code fingerprints, as expected; old
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checkpoints were compared as authenticated reference data, not restored under
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changed code. This establishes engineering equivalence on the fixed synthetic
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fixture, not forecast skill or convergence on scientific data.
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The optimization removes repeated JSON roundtrips and reuses validated,
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immutable original provenance. It preserves source IDs, ordered qualifiers,
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original observation masks, clocks, and case mappings. It does not cache Q
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values, targets, prepared fills or model outputs. Dynamic input values, masks,
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gap endpoints and fill admissibility still receive their existing checks.
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## Measured preparation and inference
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The [v2 profile](../reports/gap-pilot-preparation-profile-v2.json) made 120 timed
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calls: 20 calls in each of six stages, with zero optimizer updates, scaler fits
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or ridge fits. It finished in 11.32 seconds with approximately 323 MiB observed
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process RSS. CPU, one Torch thread, FP32, B64 and L168 were fixed.
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| Path | v1 mean | v2 mean | Interpretation |
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|---|---:|---:|---|
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| Clean adapter | 86.24 ms | 50.18 ms | v2 uses the validated snapshot view used by training |
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| Augmented adapter | 76.90 ms | 53.03 ms | Same snapshot path plus deterministic artificial gaps |
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| Full provenance digest | 211.40 ms | 62.72 ms | Actual optimized digest helper; identical logical bytes |
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| Model-only forward | 14.88 ms | 14.82 ms | Prepared tensors; no preparation or inverse transform |
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| Repeated-batch full prediction | 335.92 ms | 144.09 ms | v2 includes one initial cache miss and 19 hits |
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| New-origin full prediction | Not measured | 175.06 ms | Twenty distinct batches, all actual cache misses |
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The model-only rate is essentially unchanged. The observed improvement is in
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work surrounding that model call. These are separately timed paths, not an
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additive trace that precisely assigns every millisecond. Workspace/runtime
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residency and cache conditions also changed, so the table is not a controlled
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ablation attributing every gain to one code edit.
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The original training provenance snapshot was built once outside the adapter
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timers; its measured setup was 31.68 ms for 64 cases. New-origin fixtures were
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also generated outside their timers, and their output-identity checks ran after
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timing. Each new batch shifted its 64 origins by another hour within the
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declared outer interval. Cache diagnostics confirmed 20 additional misses and
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zero hits, with at most one retained entry. The batches overlap in calendar
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content; this measures metadata-cache misses, not cold disk reads or actual data
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extraction.
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The 19 warm-hit calls alone averaged 142.18 ms. A repeated-batch result must not
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stand in for ordinary new-origin inference. Runtime planning below therefore
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defaults to 175.06 ms. A batch-major scenario is shown separately and requires
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one cold request followed by 16 warm requests for each outer batch; it does not
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assume all 17 requests are warm or that this schedule has been adopted.
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## Full training-source constructor check
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The [constructor qualification](../reports/gap-pilot-constructor-qualification-v2.json)
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passed at **17,869 synthetic source rows**: 15,717 gradient-fit and 2,152 inner
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rows, matching the largest proposed CV1 gauge counts. It retained **zero outer
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or unassigned rows**. Synthetic placement and values were used; actual scientific
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case membership and source bodies were not read.
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Recorded work was:
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- Synthetic fixture generation: 6.48 seconds.
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- Trainer construction, including one synthetic original-H2 scaler fit:
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9.01 seconds.
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- One clean and one augmented 64-case batch: 114.46 and 112.65 ms.
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- Total after imports: 15.73 seconds.
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- Peak observed parent-plus-child RSS: **1.832 GiB**, under the 4 GiB limit;
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wall allowance: 120 seconds.
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- Zero optimizer construction, neural updates, model forward calls or ridge fits.
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The original NumPy payload was 97,779,508 bytes and provenance covered 3,001,992
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history slots. Payload bytes, retained metadata size and total process RSS are
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different quantities. This check does not isolate their individual peak costs.
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The future pilot assembler must keep this fit/inner footprint and load outer
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cases separately. The optional 26,425-row outer-inclusive constructor was not
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run. Nor does this check qualify the optional final-development constructor,
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whose largest fit/inner source would contain 42,696 cases, or full-cohort
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backpropagation memory. Those larger workloads require their own qualification
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or a separately reviewed streaming design.
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## Updated conditional runtime
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The [v2 reassessment](../reports/gap-pilot-runtime-reassessment-v2.json) retains
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the per-gauge admitted counts and B64 batch ceilings. It separates each arm's
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first update from its next three samples:
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| Arm | First update | Mean of next three | v1 mean of next three |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|
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| Clean H4 | 654.89 ms | 151.16 ms | 356.46 ms |
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| Augmented H4 | 545.17 ms | 155.27 ms | 324.11 ms |
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These update timings include preparation, hashes, copies, model work and the
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qualification worker's durable status writes. The first update also constructs
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the optimizer lazily. Four samples per arm do not establish stable throughput,
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convergence or a confidence interval. The JSON includes later-sample
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minimum/mean/maximum scenarios without interpreting those extremes as bounds.
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The following table uses the later-three means. All figures are **modeled hours,
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not measured scientific-run durations**.
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| Proposed work | 20 epochs, cold default | 50 epochs, cold default | 20 epochs, conditional batch-major | 50 epochs, conditional batch-major |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| Six-fit CV1 pilot | 2.03 | 4.06 | 1.91 | 3.94 |
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| Optional 18-fit confirmation, excluding unknown constructor cost | 11.71 | 26.47 | 11.38 | 26.14 |
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| Combined modeled portions | 13.74 | 30.53 | 13.30 | 30.09 |
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The pilot estimate includes the largest-CV1 measured synthetic constructor time
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once per fit as a setup proxy for all three gauges. It does not substitute the
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synthetic fixture-generation time for actual source extraction. Final-stage
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constructor cost is explicitly unknown and omitted, not assigned a zero cost.
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For each fit, training time is the observed first update plus the remaining
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update count multiplied by the selected later rate. Clean-inner time uses the
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new-origin full-predictor rate as an **unmeasured surrogate** in both schedules;
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it is neither a measurement of the inner-loss loop nor a proven upper bound.
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Outer time is either 17 cold calls per batch, or one cold plus 16 warm calls.
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The older H2 per-epoch checkpoint-write placeholder remains separately labeled;
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the cost of growing H4 journals is not yet measured.
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The 17 requests are evaluation opportunities, not guaranteed successful scored
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panels. Mixed-recent ridge still correctly rejected its 64-case qualification
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batch because only 56 cases had admissible original lag context. Failures may
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not be silently dropped to improve coverage or metrics.
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Scientific ridge fitting, actual data assembly, scoring/resampling, larger
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constructor costs, long-run thermal effects and failed attempts remain outside
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these measured costs. The six neural pilot fits plus three ridge fits, and any
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optional expansion, still require their separate protocol and execution review.
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The [v1 reassessment](../reports/gap-pilot-runtime-reassessment.json) and
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[original proposal](../reports/coverage-sensitivity-resource-proposal.json)
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remain unchanged. The primary 180-fit estimates are not revised by this optional
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H4 timing work. Synthetic checks also do not certify that every development
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corpus file is resident; data restoration has separate evidence and completion
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criteria.

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